Ten years from now...
the 928 values, Greg Gray

In 2005

What will be the mix of 928s that will be around in 10 years? It looks like the market for early cars is hitting a bottom for early cars right now. The reasoning for that is the cars are worth more in parts than they are complete.

The early cars that have been neglected also are starting to come off the road as the current owners don't have the will or money to keep them running. The retirement of the many will generally be good for the few that survive.

This has shown to be the case for other cars that had a second chance at popularity. I think the first cars to pick up in value will be the first 928. The spoilerless car, with its checkered cloth interior and round clock. Good examples of these I think could easily make it back into the 20s if not 30s in this period.

The S, my model, (that is my disclaimer BTW) represents the best value in the 928. It has great engine power and features worth having, such as the lower seat rails and four speed automatic, without the added complexities that will plague owners of later cars. The brakes are good but not great for track work but are a lot cheaper to replace than the ones on the S4. (all 928s have roughly the same stopping distance).

The early S with mechanical injection have the most reliable fuel injection system ever made. Only emissions forced a change there. In 10 years time the S4 will be getting on, it will be on average 25 years old. The added complexities of this car will surely add to its attrition rate. More computers and unserviceable parts and things like rear airconditioning will make it a costly proposition to keep on the road.

Also this torque tube problem that has just become evident here and recently extensively discussed on 928 mailing lists, the torque tube shaft breaking due to running in 4 cylinder mode and then the difficulty in servicing later style tubes will put a lot of these cars off the road.

Many of the S4s are into the 125k+ plus mark. I recently had apart an S4 gearbox that had done 170k and the work needed was as follows, recondition the gearbox, change the convertor bearings and put new bearings in the torque tube. The cambelt and water pump had recently been changed but this bill would be close to $13k with other little bits thrown in here and there.

In general I think the S4 will fair the worst out of all 928s. Certainly as a daily driver proposition.

The cars likely to do better will be the GT, SE and CS. These were limited production cars. Only 1,600 GTs world wide and far less for the CS and SE will ensure support amongst the preformance car enthuisists.

These cars will probably benefit from being weekend cars also. Some very advanced technology used in these cars and as such their preformance is still formidable.

The GTS will also do OK I believe. The last of the 928s and often in the hands of enthusists. People realise that there are no more 928s in the pipeline and will seek to preserve what they have.

Just for that fact that it was the last of the series will ensure its uniqueness and low volumes of production will help also. Also the parts back up for the GTS is the best of the 928s.

Overall I think originality will help values especially on the early cars and unique models, the weening out of the cheap cars is already well under way and real enthuisists with mechanical knowledge coming into the mark for the right reasons, that being the fine car the 928 is and not that it is the only P car I can afford.

These are my opinions based on my experience as a mechanic and car enthuisist, feel free to disagree. - Greg Gray

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In 2011

I wrote the above over six years ago, it was interesting to re-read, to see how accurate the predictions are proving to be.

There is as ever a great divergence in the quality of the stock that comes for sale. Many of the really good cars never come for sale. That being said, prices are certainly still coming down. It should also be said that all the classic cars, like the old Monaros and GTs are also coming down, more so than our cars. The other interesting factor is that there is many repro parts now available for these classic and almost classic cars, when you add the cost of these parts up they are much more expensive than the 928 parts by and large especially given there is still decent second hand parts for the 928. However it is obviously good that they are available.

Both my cars are in exceptional order winning various prizes in the PCNSW concours, back then I guess, being realistic, I could have got $20K back then, now it would be low teens. My car only has 80 odd thousand kms on it.

Although I would never sell my cars they are certainly worth less now. Mine and my wife's car are both S2 models, one early one late. I think it is getting to an interesting crossover point where the cars are worth more in parts than whole.

An interesting question may be are the cars losing value because they are just older or because jobs like major rebuilds of the engines is really due now for many cars. Some may say what??!!! However with these engines, a damaged head gasket can lead to a very extensive engine rebuild. I know of two engines locally that needed rebuilding because of leaking head gaskets, where the water seeped into the combustion chamber and scored the bore. The same sort of damage can occur when the injectors stay open and partially fill the chamber.

The engines I have pulled apart have very rotten head gaskets, not much if any life left in them. This is the reason I raised the issue when the fellow was changing his sump gasket in the car. It makes sense to change the gaskets and oil seals, rings etc. now before something goes majorly wrong. This may be what scares people off these old cars, I have seen two S4 s on EBay recently, both failing to get a bid, an '87 listed at $10K which has been on the market for a year I guess and a '90 or '91 S4 starting at $15K.

There has also been a GTS on the market for over a year, not sure what it started out at but I saw a old ad in Unique Cars for $60K now currently listed at $45K for quite some time. With the value put closer to $25k by various valuation guides. Privately the vendor may get into the 30s. So proportionally the GTS is doing better the S4, maybe that is because there is less GTSs around and S4s are more plentiful.

The S models seem to have held up the best, they appear to have hit bottom. However all this is pretty discouraging when some of the old taxis are getting more than various 928s. I am talking about XY Fairmonts, GS models etc. There is no sign yet of the very early models turning around in value, maybe after this next economic downturn we seem to have coming, things will change and people will start to get nostalgic about the eighties and how easy it was to make money then. Considerably different to what it is now.

If there is a downturn lots of people may look upon the 928 differently. A recession lead 928 recovery? If I can't have money like the eighties I can still have a 928! - Greg Gray

and a few responses to Greg's article...

• Concur Greg.
  Collectors etc. have now woken to the fact that the GT is a rare performance car. - Bert
  
  
• I love the early cars too!
  My '79 5sp and '83 S are my favourite cars, by a long way. The '79 cost a small fortune to restore but I don't regret a cent of it. It's such a great car to drive and looks fantastic without the spoilers and the side impact protector strips. Who cares what they are valued at, they bring me a great deal of pleasure and that's what matters to me.- Brian '79 5sp '83 S '88 S4


• Very thoughtful post Greg.
  It may come down to attitudes. For example, do I see the shark as an item in my assets portfolio, or as an "oh bugger! I've paid for it and I just LIKE it!" I bought my car when I was 49yo and I'm now 60yo. Not unlike many ppl on the list I suppose. Early on I mothered my car to death: over servicing with 10x overpriced oils, cleaners, fluids, brake pads, over protecting it etc. The expense being justified under the guise of "preserving my asset". Ten years on it's value is now only it's value to me, as a great automotive base on which I can build and enjoy my own performance and styling innovations. - John '89 S4


• I look upon my spendings as good value.
  Excellent value in fact. Firstly is is my primary transport, 'daily drive' I REALLY love the PCWA driving events. I'm not fast but push myself to MY limit. That is all that matters. The value of these cars is intrinsically the same to us all as (for example) swimming is to my wife and needlework to a granny. Passion. These things ring our collective bells. These things are a stupid investment for your money, but not everything in this world has to be reduced to dollars and cents. The cheaper they remain the more money I will have to spend on it! - Chris S4 5sp


• Likewise;
  I consider myself reasonably intelligent, rational and well educated. When you look at what dollars im pouring into my car im a complete and utter lunatic, and I don't care. I would prefer to die with a smile on my face and a notch in my belt rather than an extra $50k in the bank. In the words of John lennon "if it doesnt hurt anyone and it makes you happy dont stop doing it" Life is way too short guys; enjoy yourself while you are here; if tinkering with some old car is your version of pleasure JUST DO IT! - Dave


• Greg et al, your comments noted and appreciated.
  I have been watching this market and thinking about the dynamics of all of this, I was going to put together a more coherent email next year but seeing you have kicked of the subject here's some itemized thoughts, as a quick intro I had a very nice '85 S2 12 -14 years back. - John D. more...